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In his election campaign, the former president pledged to steer clear of expensive and often disastrous overseas wars such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan. This commitment formed a central component of his isolationist “America first” platform. However not long after his inauguration, American military units carried out airstrikes in Yemen and Iran. Looking southward, the president threatened to seize the Panama Canal. Currently, the Pentagon is preparing for possible operations against so-called “terrorist” narco-trafficking organizations within the borders of Colombia and Mexico. Of greatest immediate concern is a possible fresh White House attempt to enforce regime change on Venezuela.

Venezuela's Reaction and Escalating Tensions

Venezuela's president, the country's hard-left strongman president, asserts that this campaign is already begun. He states that the US is conducting an “undeclared war” against his country following several lethal strikes on Venezuelan ships in international waters. Trump last week notified Congress that the United States is involved in “armed conflict” with drug cartels. He states, without proof, that the attacked vessels were carrying drugs bound for the US – and that the Venezuelan leader bears responsibility. He has issued a $50m bounty on Maduro’s head.

Regional governments are nervously monitoring a significant US military build-up around Venezuela, featuring warships, F-35 combat aircraft, an attack submarine and thousands of marines. Such powerful resources are hardly much use in drug interdiction. However they might be deployed for attack, or to support special forces raids and bombing runs. On Thursday, Venezuela alleged Washington of unauthorized entry by several F-35s. Maduro states he is readying a state of emergency to defend citizens if Venezuela is attacked by the American empire.

Questioning the Motives Behind the Moves

What is Trump doing? Drug smuggling is a major issue – but killing people on a whim on the high seas, although frequent and hard to hold accountable, remains illegal. Moreover, United Nations reports state the majority of the cocaine entering the US originates in Colombia, Peru and Ecuador, and is mostly not trafficked through Venezuela. The president, a former avoided military service, enjoys playing the tough commander-in-chief. Currently, he is seeking to expel Venezuelan immigrants, many of whom previously escaped to America due to economic measures he himself imposed. Experts propose he covets Venezuela’s vast energy and natural wealth.

It’s true that Trump and John Bolton, hoped to oust Maduro back in 2019 in an event Caracas described as a regime change plot. It’s also true, the president's recent electoral victory was broadly denounced as fraudulent. If allowed to vote freely, the people would almost certainly vote out him. Furthermore, clashing political beliefs play a role, too. The leader, poor successor to his predecessor's socialist movement, is offensive to Trump’s imperial idea of an American-led western hemisphere, where the historic policy is revived and free-market capitalism functions without restraint.

Absence of Coherent Planning

Yet considering his inept missteps in other key foreign issues, the most likely reason for the president's behavior is that, typically, he hasn’t got a clue what he’s doing – regarding Caracas or Latin America overall. There’s no plan. He acts aggressively, takes rash decisions, fans fears of foreigners and bases policy on whether he “likes” foreign counterparts. Previously, with Maduro in trouble, Trump blinked. Now, full-scale armed involvement in Venezuela remains unlikely. More likely is an intensified campaign of coercion involving destabilisation, penalties, naval attacks, and air and commando raids.

Instead of undermining and marginalizing the regime, Trump could bring about the exact opposite. Maduro is already exploiting the crisis to seize authoritarian “special powers” and rally public opinion with patriotic calls for unity. The president's aggression towards other socialist Latin American nations – like Colombia – and presumptuous cheerleading for rightwing leaders in Argentina and El Salvador – is spurring pushback across the continent, as well. Most governments detest the idea of a return to the past era of American interference in the hemisphere.

Latin American Backlash and Diplomatic Failures

Trump’s effort to employ trade penalties and sanctions to pressure Brazil to pardoning its former conservative leader Jair Bolsonaro failed dramatically recently. Massive protests demonstrated of Brazilian cities to protect what they rightly saw as an assault on national independence and rule of law. The popularity of Bolsonaro’s successor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, increased. Brazil is not, and will never become, a dependent state,” he stated. Lula effectively told the US president, essentially, to back off. Then, at their meeting at the UN summit, Trump retreated and played nice.

The perception of a significant regression in US-Latin America ties grows inevitably. The White House views the region primarily as a danger, associating it with drug trafficking, criminal networks and immigration,” an analyst cautioned earlier this year. American policy has become essentially adversarial, favoring independent moves and dominance instead of cooperation,” she said, noting: “The region is being treated not as an equal partner and more as a sphere of influence to be controlled according to American goals.”

Aggressive Officials and Escalating Rhetoric

Trump’s hardline advisers are part of the problem: notably Stephen Miller, White House top aide, and Marco Rubio, an ex- lawmaker for Florida serving as top diplomat and security advisor. For Rubio, a long-standing opponent of leftwing governments in Cuba and Nicaragua, the Venezuelan leader is unfinished business. Defending the boat attacks, he declared: “Interdiction doesn’t work. The solution is destroying them … This will continue.” Coming from the top US diplomat, this is quite a statement.

Long-term Consequences

Trump’s attempts to revive the role of Latin American neighbourhood policeman, emulating former president Theodore Roosevelt – a big stick-wielding frequent meddler – are regressive, dangerous and self-defeating. In the future, the main beneficiary will most likely be Beijing, an increasingly powerful player, investor and leading member of the Brics group countries. While America burns its bridges globally, Trump is making China rise in influence.